A Very Serious Reply to Nate Silver

Earlier today, Nate Silver—best known for winning the 2012 US presidential election—posted an entry in his popular 538 blog on a subject near and dear to the hearts of Canadians: namely, why a Canadian team hasn’t won a single Stanley Cup since 1993.

[pause for deep, calming breath]

With all due respect to Mr. Silver, I think his analysis misses out on an important variable, one that I’m sure most Canadians would instinctively agree with. Accordingly, I did some number crunching (i.e. adding) of my own to investigate the much-needed gap in the initial analysis. The findings, I think you’ll agree, are as compelling as they are disturbing. The following graph summarizes my results, and it speaks for itself (click to embiggen):

stanley

They say correlation doesn’t imply causation. That may be true, and I may also be disturbingly vague on the mechanisms linking cause and effect, but I defy anyone to disagree with the truthiness of my analysis.

*Technically Bettman was commissioner during the 1993 Canadiens’ Cup win, but only took the role in February of that year; arguably, the Bettman treatment effect was lessened during Carbonneau & company’s run as a result.

photo credit: bridgetds via photopin cc

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